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Key Findings

California voters take now received their mail ballots, and the November 8 full general election has entered its final stage. Amid rising prices and economic uncertainty—as well as deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a swell deal of information to assist them cull state constitutional officers and land legislators and to make policy decisions about state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may make up one's mind which party controls the US House.

These are amongst the cardinal findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October fourteen to 23 by the Public Policy Constitute of California:

Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy. Lxx-six pct charge per unit the nation'south economy as "not so adept" or "poor." 30-nine percentage say their finances are "worse off" today than a year ago. Twoscore-seven percent say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percent call up things in the US are going in the correct direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→
Among probable voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor's ballot were today. Partisans are securely divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely post-obit news about the governor's race. Threescore-two percent are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor'south election.→
When probable voters are read the ballot championship and labels, 34 pct would vote yes on Proposition 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percentage would vote yep on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling), and 41 percent would vote yes on Suggestion 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Near likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percentage think it would be a "bad thing" if information technology became legal in the state. Fewer than half of likely voters say the vote event of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→
50-six percent of probable voters would support the Democratic candidate in their U.s. House race if the election were today. Threescore-one per centum say the issue of abortion rights is very of import in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more probable than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About one-half are "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic almost voting for Congress this yr; 54 percent of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
Twoscore-5 percent of Californians and 40 percent of likely voters are satisfied with the way that commonwealth is working in the United States. Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with dissimilar political views tin can still come up together and work out their differences.→
Majorities of California adults and likely voters corroborate of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Almost four in ten or more California adults and likely voters approve of Usa Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These approval ratings vary beyond partisan groups. Approval of the land legislature is higher than approval of the US Congress.→

Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to go until what is set up to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong management (48%); a majority of likely voters (54%) call back the state is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view concluding month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% probable voters; correct direction: 50% adults, 48% probable voters). Today, at that place is a wide partisan divide: seven in ten Democrats are optimistic about the management of the country, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orangish/San Diego say the state is going in the incorrect management, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say right management; adults elsewhere are divided. Beyond demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the just groups in which a majority are optimistic nearly California's direction.

figure - Half or fewer Californians have said the state is going in the right direction throughout 2022

Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of the country than they are nigh the direction of the state. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the United states is going in the incorrect direction, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. One in three or fewer adults (33%) and probable voters (25%) recall the state is going in the right direction. Majorities beyond all demographic groups and partisan groups, too every bit across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United states.

figure - The share of adults who say the United States is going in the right direction has been trending downward since mid-2021

The state of the economy and inflation are likely to play a critical function in the upcoming election, and about four in ten adults (39%) and probable voters (43%) say they and their family unit are worse off financially than they were a twelvemonth ago. Similar shares say they are financially in about the same spot (43% adults, 44% probable voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly amid likely voters since May, only is similar among adults (37% adults, 36% probable voters). Fewer than ii in ten Californians say they are better off than they were one yr ago (17% adults, xiii% likely voters). A broad partisan carve up exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the same as a year ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are about the same, while half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. Beyond demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the same as terminal yr or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% amend off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% better off). The shares saying they are worse off turn down as educational attainment increases.

With persistent inflation and concerns nigh a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economy is in not so good (43% adults, 40% probable voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% likely voters) shape. Most a quarter of adults (3% excellent, xx% adept) and likely voters (two% excellent, 23% good) feel positively nigh the national economy. Stiff majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, only Republicans and independents are much more probable than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities beyond the state'southward major regions equally well as all demographic groups say the economy is in not so skilful or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Mail service poll, 24 percent (three% fantabulous, 21% skilful) of adults nationwide felt positively about the United states economy, while 74 per centum (36% not so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.

Gubernatorial Ballot

6 in ten likely voters say they are following news nearly the 2022 governor's race very (25%) or fairly (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat similar to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, 40% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news near the gubernatorial ballot either very or adequately closely. The shares saying they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (30%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $twoscore,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older probable voters (27%) are slightly more than likely than younger probable voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.

figure - Six in ten likely voters are following news about candidates for the 2022 governor's election at least fairly closely

Autonomous incumbent Gavin Newsom is alee of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among likely voters, while few say they would non vote, would vote for neither, or don't know who they would vote for in the governor's race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month agone (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of virtually Democrats (91%), while most Republicans (86%) back up Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the land's regions, two in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles support Newsom, as practise nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; likely voters in the Fundamental Valley are separate. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% high school only, 56% some college, 60% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $forty,000 to $79,999, 52% $fourscore,000 or more than).

figure - A majority of likely voters would vote to reelect Gavin Newsom if the election were held today

A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November 8 ballot, while about 3 in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction accept increased somewhat from a calendar month ago (53%) and were like prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (sixty% Oct 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities beyond demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more probable than men (56%) to say this. Majorities beyond the country'south regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.

State Propositions 26, 27, and 30

In the upcoming November viii election, at that place will be vii state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey merely asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and thirty. For each, nosotros read the suggestion number, ballot, and ballot label. Two of the state election measures were also included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.

If the election were held today, 34 pct of likely voters would vote "yep," 57 percent would vote "no," and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make sure payments to the state to back up state regulatory costs. It also allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new manner to enforce certain state gambling laws. There is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than four in 10 Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote "yes." Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of probable voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yes, 44% no)—would vote "aye."

If the election were held today, 26 pct of likely voters would vote "aye," 67 percent would vote "no," and 8 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Exterior Tribal Lands. This citizens' initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Stiff majorities beyond partisan groups would vote "no" on Prop 27. The share voting "yes" has decreased since a month agone (34% September). Today, fewer than three in 10 across partisan groups would vote "aye" on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than iv in ten beyond regions, gender, racial/ethnic, teaching, and income groups would vote "yes." Likely voters ages 18 to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older likely voters ages 45 and higher up (19%) to say they would vote "yeah."

If the election were held today, 41 pct of likely voters would vote "aye," 52 percent would vote "no," and 7 per centum are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $two Million. This citizens' initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than than $ii million annually and allocate that tax acquirement to zero-emission vehicle buy incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share proverb "yeah" on Prop thirty has decreased from 55 percentage in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in "no on Prop thirty" commercials). Today, different Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop xxx: 61 percentage of Democrats would vote "yeah," compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and among men and women, support falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half beyond racial/indigenous groups say they would vote "yeah" (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). But over half of likely voters with incomes under $40,000 (52%) would vote "yes," compared to fewer in college-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more). Nearly half of probable voters ages eighteen to 44 (49%) would vote "yes," compared to 37 percentage of older probable voters.

figure - Overall support for Prop 26, 27, and 30 falls short of a majority, with partisans divided

Fewer than half of likely voters say the result of each of these country propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the effect of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percentage say the upshot of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 pct say the outcome of Prop thirty is very important. The shares proverb the outcomes are very of import to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop thirty (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, i in four or fewer across partisan groups say it is very of import to them. About one in three across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very of import to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the upshot of Prop 30 is very important to them.

figure - The share of likely voters who say the outcome of the vote is very important differs by proposition

Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 pct of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 per centum would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a like share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans back up their party's candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Autonomous candidates are preferred by a 26-bespeak margin in Autonomous-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the 10 competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-betoken margin (54% to 32%).

figure - A majority of likely voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the election for Congress were held today

Ballgame is another prominent issue in this ballot. When asked well-nigh the importance of abortion rights, 61 per centum of probable voters say the issue is very of import in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 percent say it is somewhat important; just 17 percent say information technology is not too or not at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 per centum of independents say information technology is very of import, compared to 43 percent of Republicans. Majorities beyond regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very of import)—say abortion rights are very of import when making their selection amongst candidates for Congress.

figure - A solid majority of likely voters say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year

With the decision-making political party in Congress hanging in the residuum, 51 percent of probable voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while xix percentage are either non too or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 before the last midterm election, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not too, 8% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans accept about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to exist extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Surface area (43%). At least half beyond demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of probable voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and 18- to 44-yr-olds (37%).

Democracy and the Political Carve up

Equally Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm ballot, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.s.a.—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and about four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to about ane in five Republicans. Notably, 4 in 10 Republicans are not at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (fifty%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than one-half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a loftier schoolhouse degree or less (55%), and those making less than $40,000 (53%).

figure - Fewer than half of Californians are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States

In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way democracy is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of dissimilar political positions can still come together and work out their differences. Forty-ix per centum are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more than recent years, but has decreased 7 points since nosotros offset asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, only before the 2020 general ballot, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan understanding, about four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views will be able to come together. Across regions, about half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Beyond demographic groups, simply the following groups have a majority or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a loftier schoolhouse diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes nether $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, one-half or more than across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.

figure - Californians are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can still come together and work out differences

Approval Ratings

With about two weeks to go before Governor Newsom'southward bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) corroborate of the way he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approving was most identical in September (52% adults, 55% probable voters) and has been fifty percent or more than since Jan 2020. Today, well-nigh 8 in x Democrats—compared to well-nigh half of independents and about one in ten Republicans—corroborate of Governor Newsom. Half or more beyond regions corroborate of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about one-half or more than approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his chore.

With all 80 country associates positions and half of state senate seats upwards for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) corroborate of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are securely divided forth partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area and everyman in Orange/San Diego. About one-half across racial/indigenous groups corroborate, and approval is much higher among younger Californians.

figure - About half approve of the governor and state legislature

Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the fashion President Biden is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% probable voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden'due south approval rating amidst adults has been at 50 percent or higher since we first asked this question in January 2021. Today, about eight in 10 Democrats approve of Biden's task performance, compared to about four in ten independents and one in ten Republicans. Approval is college in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Central Valley. About half or more across demographic groups corroborate of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approval of Congress remains low, with fewer than iv in ten adults (37%) and probable voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress among adults has been below twoscore per centum for all of 2022 after seeing a brief run in a higher place xl percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more probable than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

figure - About half continue to approve of President Biden; approval of Congress remains low

US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—once for the rest of Vice President Harris's term and in one case for reelection. Senator Padilla has the blessing of 46 percentage of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don't know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don't know). Approval in March was at 44 percentage for adults and 39 percent for probable voters. Today, Padilla's blessing rating is much college among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Beyond regions, nigh one-half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the US senator, compared to four in x in Orange/San Diego and one in iii in the Key Valley. Across demographic groups, about half or more approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are like across education and income groups, with merely fewer than half approving.

US Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this November—has the approval of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don't know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, seven% don't know). Approving in March was at 41 per centum for adults and 36 per centum for probable voters. Today, Feinstein's approval rating is far college among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, approval reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Surface area. Across demographic groups, approving reaches a majority merely amid African Americans